Like most of us I’ve been watching the news for the last few days with my heart in my throat.
Nothing I can say is really adequate. I’m not a foreign policy expert, and while I’m a history buff I don’t have fancy letters after my name. All I can offer are a collection of vague thoughts:
- This feels like the beginning of WWIII and I really hope I’m wrong about that.
- We do not need a world war with nukes. I think this is why Biden is insisting the U.S. won’t send active troops into Ukraine itself- one nuclear power in direct conflict with the other nuclear power (run by a dictator who has already threatened to use them) makes an already horrific situation worse.
- It is a horrific situation. I can’t imagine what the people of Ukraine are going through, either hiding and hoping they don’t get shelled or fleeing to another country. I gather that the Russian invasion wasn’t expected until the very last minute so it’s not like most of the country was sitting around with a gun or go bag.
- The Ukrainian people are badasses on so many levels. You’ve read all the stories (the Snake Island defenders, the granny with the sunflower seeds) so I won’t repeat them here. I think what amazes me most are people signing up for militias despite no experience and real risk.
- These new Ukrainian militias make the U.S. militia movement look like a bunch of frat boys looking for a fight over petty grievances. Not to say homegrown militias aren’t dangerous (they are) but no Americans within living history have experienced a land war in their own country (Pearl Harbor and 9/11, as terrible as they were, were not full scale invasions by a foreign power). While the Oath Keepers and 3 Percenters get wound up over the culture wars, Ukrainian militias are fighting for their lives.
- Zelensky is the biggest badass of them all. The sensible thing to do would be flee and set up a Ukrainian government in exile a la de Gaulle but instead he’s chosen to stay and fight for his country. George VI’s refusal to leave London during the Blitz and Elizabeth I’s vow to “live or die amongst you all” in the face of the Spanish Armada spring to mind (look, British history is my wheelhouse – these may not be great comparisons but they’re what I’ve got).
- Ukraine has won the media war, hands down.
- Biden’s sanctions may seem weak/vague in comparison to sending in troops but see above re: a war between two nuclear powers. I don’t think Putin will be deterred by sanctions, but without resources he can’t do very much.
- I think this is largely Putin’s war. Based on the huge number of Russians protesting despite the risks it appears most of them aren’t in favor.
- No idea what the oligarchs thought they would get out of invading Ukraine, if they were consulted at all. As their assets dry up I imagine they’re going to be less and less keen to support Putin’s war, if they ever were to begin with.
- No idea how to discuss the war with Ukrainians, so I just…haven’t. I’m thinking particularly of an acquaintance who was born in Ukraine but grew up under the Soviet system, so I don’t know what to say or how to say it.
- Too many Republicans are still kissing Putin’s ass but I’m pleased that at least a few are condemning his actions. They’re trying to paint Biden as “weak” but as usual don’t have much to back that up.
- Yes, this is the definition of “witnessing history”, being aware of seismic changes even as they’re happening. I’m not sure I like it. History feels safer when viewed through a buffer of a few decades. Day to day waiting to see if Zelensky has survived the night or whether Putin still has his nukes on alert isn’t all that fun.